In 2017–18, Mick Cronin led Cincinnati back to where the program once lived comfortably — as a protected NCAA Tournament seed. Since that moment, however, the standard has slipped. Two coaching regimes later, the dominant storyline has been the same: frustration.

Now, Wes Miller enters a pivotal year in Clifton. Bearcat fans expect — and frankly demand — a return to the NCAA Tournament. And they’re watching what patience can produce elsewhere: Cincinnati football sits atop the Big 12 this fall, proof that continuity paired with the right leadership can pay off in a big way.

That patience, though, is wearing thin on the hardwood.

If Miller wants to quiet restless fans — and potentially skeptical decision-makers — this program has to return to March.

The encouraging news? The talent is finally there. A highly touted freshman class blends with a targeted group of transfers brought in to address specific roster needs. For the first time in the Miller era, Cincinnati looks built to compete at a tournament level.

But the context is unforgiving. The Bearcats play in the second-toughest conference in college basketball, where almost every night pits them against a postseason-caliber roster. They enter the year picked 8th in the Big 12 and without a single player named to the preseason All-Conference teams — a reminder of how far respect still has to be  earned.

Even the preseason teased the extremes of what this squad could become. Cincinnati impressed nationally with a road exhibition win at Michigan, showing flashes of a top-tier ceiling. Days later, an exhibition at Arkansas offered a glimpse of the floor — a team still learning how to consistently execute against physical, experienced opponents.

The exhibitions confirmed one thing for me: The floor (Arkansas) and the ceiling (Michigan). There is a ton of pressure on the Bearcats to perform closer to that ceiling level of play.  How the Bearcats handle that pressure will determine whether this season becomes the turning point fans have been waiting for — or another chapter in a growing list of near-misses.

Let’s start the journey with a dive into who makes up this roster:

Freshman Class

Shon Abaev – A McDonald’s All-American and ranked 29th nationally by 247Sports, the Ft. Lauderdale native arrives in Clifton as an immediate scoring threat. He put up 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists per game in OTE action this past season. Abaev is a bucket with a legitimate opportunity to carve out a major role from day one.

Keyshaun Tillery – A four-star prospect and the No. 53 player nationally per 247Sports. He joins a crowded and experienced backcourt, but will have plenty of veteran leadership to learn from. Expect him to contribute as a role player early, with the potential to become a key impact guard off the bench once Big 12 play heats up — and a long-term pillar moving forward.

Returning Players

Day Day Thomas – Back thanks to the Pavia JUCO ruling, Day Day finished last year averaging 10.2 PPG / 2.7 RPG / 2.7 APG on 41% FG / 40% 3PT / 77% FT. After finally getting a full, healthy offseason, he enters his final campaign as the engine of this roster. Big year incoming.

Tyler McKinley – Still a bit of an unknown heading into the season, but he brings needed strength and rebounding — especially important while Haynes is sidelined. His role could expand quickly as he settles into the college game.

Transfers In

Kerr Kriisa (Kentucky) – Health has been the limiting factor, but Kriisa’s edge and playmaking should be a strong fit for UC. In limited action at Kentucky (9 games), he averaged 4.4 / 2.4 / 3.8, though he struggled from deep at 26%. His last fully healthy year at WVU in 2023–24 showcased his upside: 11 PPG / 3 RPG / 5 APG on 42% from three. If he stays on the floor, the impact could be significant.

Sencire Harris (West Virginia) – One of the elite defenders in the league. His toughness and energy match the Bearcat identity to perfection, and he has two years of eligibility remaining. Last year he put up 6 / 4 / 2 on 39% shooting — the three-ball wasn’t there (11% on 53 attempts), but everything else screams winning basketball.

Jalen Haynes (George Mason) – A 6’8″ center who averaged 14 / 7 / 1 while shooting 55% FG and 60% FT (17 three-point attempts). His inside scoring and activity were expected to be key, but a preseason injury has him out indefinitely — a big blow to the early-season frontcourt rotation.

Moustapha Thiam (UCF) – A major boost to the interior and another NBA-caliber athlete on this roster. He produced 10 points, 6 boards, and 3 blocks per game on 50% shooting last year — while averaging only 3 fouls. Look for him to be an immediate, high-impact presence.

Jalen Celestine (Baylor) – Adds proven Big 12 depth on the wing. Celestine averaged 7 / 4 / 1 with solid 38% FG / 35% 3PT / 79% FT splits and nearly a steal per contest. He should give Cincinnati steady minutes and lineup versatility.

Projected Starting Lineup:

Day Day Thomas

Shon Abev

Kerr Kriisa

Baba Miller

Moustapi Thiiam 

Rotation: 

6th man: Sincere Harris. 

 Jordi Rodriguez, Tyler Mckinley, Halvin Dzellat, Jalen Celestine, Keyshaun Tillery. 

One thing that works well for this squad is that they have 10 guys who appear to capable of playing in the Big 12. Will they all pan out? Doubtful, but they have an easy schedule for most of the non-conference slate and will have time to figure it out. 

 I want to add that I am projecting the starting lineup and it’s totally possible that I am wrong, especially about Harris. However, for now, I believe the 5 above would start, with Harris playing starter level minutes. Harris is one of the best defenders in the country.

Analytical surface Dive: 

I know not everyone is a fan of the analytics side of college basketball, however, it does play a crucial role in being able to fairly evaluate all NCAA D1 teams. 

For a baseline, I’m going to provide stats from kenpom.com and barttorvik.com as those are the two predictive models that the NCAA recognizes on their team sheets. 

	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26 (Projected)
kenpom.com OVR	39	55	36
kenpom.com adjOE	79	100	74
kenpom.com adjDE	19	22	5
barttorvik.com OVR	45	44	39
barttorvik.com adjOE	76	89	65
barttorvik.com adjDE	22	19	10

ADJ OE = Adjusted offensive efficiency; this is a metric measuring teams scoring per 100 possessions, adjusted for quality of opponents defense. 

ADJ DE = Adjusted defensive efficiency; this is a metric measuring teams defensive performance by estimating the number of points they would allow per 100 possessions against an average offense. 

Now that we’ve dove into a some key metrics, why does it matter? Why do I include it here? Again, I completely understand that especially in low-major basketball, it can be relatively meaningless. However, it is a great predictor to how a team is going to perform over the year. Is it perfect? No. However, I think it helps put the team into perspective a bit as we head into the year. 

Let’s look at the rest of the Big 12 Conference, organized by kenpom.com rankings. 

Team	kenpom.com Projected OVR rank:	barttorvik.com projected OVR rank:
Houston	1	1
Texas Tech	12	28
Iowa State	13	15
Arizona	15	12
Baylor	17	35
BYU	18	6
Kansas	21	17
Cincinnati	36	39
Kansas State	61	80
UCF	64	82
TCU	66	58
WVU	67	56
Oklahoma State	69	48
Utah	74	71
Arizona State	75	72
Colorado	83	99

kenpom.com projects Cincinnati to have a 20 win year at 20-11 (9-9). 

barttorvik.com projects Cincinnati to have a 20 win year at 20-11 (9-9).

NC Schedule Thoughts: 

11/3 vs. Western Carolina and 11/7 vs. Georgia State are buy games Cincinnati should handle easily. 

11/11 is the first true test for the squad when Dayton comes visiting. give me Cincinnati to win this one. 

11/16 vs. Mount St. Mary’s is another buy game, UC should be 4-0 after this. 

11/21 vs. Louisville (“neutral” at Heritage Bank) – This is going to be a tough one. I’m rather high on the Cardinals this year, so I’ll take them. 

11/24 vs. NJIT, 11/26 vs. Eastern Michigan, and 12/1 vs. Tarleton St – all are buy games, UC should be 7-1 headed to Norwood to play Xavier. 

12/5 @ Xavier – UC’s first road game of the year, and this is always an elite matchup. UC is clearly the best team on paper, but anything goes during Crosstown. Give me UC to win. 

12/13 vs. Georgia (Atlanta) – this is a really intriguing matchup vs. similarly projected teams. For all intents and purposes this is a tossup. I’ll take UC here. 

12/17 vs. Alabama State – UC should win easily in this buy game. 

12/21 vs. Clemson (Neutral) – This is another relative toss-up. I took UC in the other, so I’ll take Clemson here, however, it’s very possible to see any combination of 2 wins, 1-1, or 0-1 in those two semi-away games. 

12/29 vs. Lipscomb – UC’s final buy game before heading to the Big 12 gauntlet. UC should win here also. 

Overall, I’ll project UC to drop 2 games over the NC schedule and head into Big 12 play at 11-2. Ceiling would likely be 12-1 and absolute floor (not saying there’s really any shot they go this poorly tho) would be 8-5. As per the rest of these reviews, I will have a full conference breakdown as we head towards UCs’s home Big 12 opener vs. Houston on 1/3. 

My formal prediction for UC is to finish 21-10 and go 10-8 in Big 12 play if this happens, it would be enough to get UC a single digit seed in the NCAAT and get the program with some positive momentum. 

Photo Courtesy of Cincinnati Athletics