Rivalry week did not disappoint this year! We had close games, upsets, and finally, we have a little clarity on the College Football Playoff race (no thanks to Lane Kiffen).

My projections are above. When looking at the bracket, the top 7 teams feel very safely in the field and I would call them all locks. After that, I believe that Alabama is in a very good spot, unless they get blown out next weekend. That effectively leaves 2 spots up for grabs that aren’t AQ spots. 6 teams have reason to claim they belong at this point.

Why Teams should be included:

Both Oklahoma and Notre Dame have reason for concern, but are in the “drivers seat” as the committee had them in last week and both won.

Oklahoma:

Biggest Wins: @ Tennessee, @ Alabama, vs. Michigan

Why they could be left out: The Sooners have lost to both Texas (23-6), and at home vs. Ole Miss (34-26). If the committee wanted to utilize the eye test, the Sooners have struggled with Missouri (17-6) and LSU (17-13) the last two weeks, both at home. The committee could also use H2H to justify placing Texas over Oklahoma.

Notre Dame:

Why they should be in: The eye test shows that they’re one of the best 10 teams in the country. They’re also on a 10 game winning streak. Their best win, however, @ Pitt (37-15).

Why they could be left out: They have losses to Miami (Fl) and Texas A&M; both were in the beginning of the season, but this team hasn’t played anyone close to that level since the first week of September. While they look elite, it could be due to the schedule, and the committee could punish them for that.

Now, the teams just outside of the bracket, and their case for inclusion:

Texas: There is a case to jump Texas from 16 up over multiple teams who were ahead of them. The Longhorns did lose to Ohio State and Georgia, both on the road, which aren’t bad losses. They also have the terrible loss in Gainesville earlier this year. Texas has wins over likely playoff teams Oklahoma and Texas A&M, but is that enough to balance out the losses? I don’t believe so.

BYU: The Cougars are 11-1 and in a power conference. Surely they’re comfortably in, right? WRONG. BYU is currently one of, if not the first team out of the bracket. Their best win is a home win over Utah; unfortunately, their Big 12 schedule lined up in a way that didn’t allow them to pick up many big wins other than that. They’ve played one playoff level team (Texas Tech), who they lost to 29-7 in a game that wasn’t close. They need to win the Big 12 championship to get in.

Miami (FL): The Hurricanes are screaming for change in the ACC tiebreaker scenarios, with the hope that in the future, computers won’t decide the teams that move in. However, reality is that they had their chances and losses to SMU and Louisville will be their downfall for the ACC title race. If the committee wanted to evaluate head to head matchups for Miami, they absolutely could make a case for them to be in over Notre Dame who they beat by 3 to open the year. I personally do not believe that Miami is going to jump other teams, and think it is more likely Notre Dame falls out for another team.

Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are 10-2, but only played 2 playoff level teams, losing both matchups. I do not think this team has a real shot to be included.

ELIMINATION TRACKER: 

We didn’t have much change this weekend as many teams played low-level matchups or were on byes!

My bracket projection is the header image for this article, and I have updated the elimination tracker below!

Conference	SEC (5)	Big Ten (3)	ACC (1)	Big 12 (1)	G5 (1)	IND (1)
Locks	Texas A&M Georgia Ole Miss	Indiana Ohio State Oregon		Texas Tech
Bubble	Alabama Oklahoma		Virginia	BYU	JMU North Texas Tulane	Notre Dame
Chaos	Texas Vanderbilt		Duke Miami (FL)		Boise State UNLV

Yes a 5 bid SEC Sucks, I understand everyone’s complaints about it. However, right now, the committee is leaning towards Alabama, but there are multiple scenarios that could see someone else jump in. BYU wins the Big 12 championship, they’re obviously in, and I would lean Texas Tech over Alabama in that scenario. It’s not impossible the committee punishes Oklahoma for their poor performances over the last couple of weeks.

Looking at the ACC and the group of 5 teams who are all vying for the final 2 AQ spots, we are down to effectively 5 teams for 2 spots. JMU (Sun Belt), North Texas and Tulane (American), and Virginia or Duke (ACC). I find it extremely unlikely that the committee leaves out the ACC altogether, however, if Duke were to win the ACC title game, how can you justify an 8-5 team in the playoff? The committee is desperately hoping that UVA wins and does so convincingly this weekend. If not, someone’s going to have to make a nearly impossible decision.

My Picks for each of the key championship games:

Troy @ James Madison: James Madison

North Texas @ Tulane: North Texas, I think Tulane’s players are going to be a bit distracted coming into this one.

UNLV @ Boise State: Boise State

BYU @ Texas Tech: Tech wins by multiple touchdowns. I think BYU is a solid team, but I do not believe they’re a top 10 team, and Tech is clearly a top 5 team.

Georgia @ Alabama: Georgia; In no way do I expect to see Georgia lose to the same opponent 2x in one year.

Indiana @ Ohio State: Ohio State’s defense will prevail here in a close one. I’ll take the Buckeyes!

Duke @ Virginia: While we are worried about chaos, UVA will take care of Duke to avoid the doomsday scenario for the ACC and the committee.

Drop your picks below!