Welcome to Horizon League play! As part of my expanded Northern Kentucky coverage, I’ll be providing quick, high-level previews ahead of each conference matchup. If you’re looking for the full position-by-position breakdowns, David over at norseillustrated.com has you more than covered.

Wednesday night, the Norse open conference action at home against Cleveland State, who enters at 3–6. Before we dig into the matchup, let’s quickly update NKU’s early-season metrics. Catch the game on ESPN+!

NKU Metric Progress (Through Dec. 1)

As Coach Horn often reminds us, only three days truly matter each season — the three Horizon League Tournament games. But NKU’s early-season form absolutely deserves recognition.

The NCAA’s NET rankings released on December 1st, and NKU checked in at No. 148 nationally, second in the Horizon League, trailing only Oakland (115). For some additional local context, that debut slotted the Norse ahead of Cincinnati, who opened at No. 154. These numbers shift daily, but this is meaningful progress for the Norse who normally open sub-200.

Scouting Cleveland State

Cleveland State is in full rebuild mode under first-year head coach Rob Summers, and the early metrics reflect that. The Vikings enter ranked:

• 331st in NET
• 300th in KenPom

CSU has played the 81st-toughest schedule to date and has just one Division I victory — an 87–82 neutral-site win over Radford — plus two non-D1 wins. Their six Division I losses have all been by 8+ points, including two games where they surrendered 100+ points.

CSU Defensive Profile

The Vikings’ defense has been one of the worst in the country:

• Allowing 61% on opponent 2FG attempts (347th nationally)
• Allowing 34% on opponent 3FG attempts (225th)
• Very poor on the defensive glass — an area NKU exploited well last time out
• Overall defensive efficiency: 347th nationally, second-worst in the Horizon League

This is a defense NKU should be able to score on — and score efficiently.

CSU Offensive Profile

Offensively, Cleveland State has struggled across most areas:

• Turnover rate: 20.3% (293rd in the country)
• Block rate allowed: 16.5% (363rd — near the bottom of Division I)
• Offensive rebounding: 225th nationally

However, the Vikings do have two legitimate strengths:

• 3-point shooting: 35.8% (104th nationally)
• Free throw rate: 54th nationally in FTA/FGA, shooting 72% at the line

If CSU hangs around, it’ll likely be via threes and trips to the stripe.

Key Players

• Tre Beard — 15.5 PPG
  Leading scorer, but has not played since Nov. 19.
• Dayan Nessah — 15 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG
  Likely the most consistent scoring threat available for the Vikings.
• Josiah Harris — 10 PPG, 8 RPG, 3 APG
  Impact rebounder and interior presence.

Matchup & Prediction

KenPom projects an 84–75 NKU win with a 79% win probability. Given the Norse’s recent level of play, this feels like a matchup where they can — and probably should — cover that projection.

While several players can take advantage of the poor Viking defense, LJ Wells is a player to watch Wednesday night, he should be able to control the glass and provide physicality down low. If NKU avoids foul trouble and limits CSU’s three-point output, this is a game they can put away early.

A very winnable matchup — and an ideal way to kick off Horizon League play.

All data pulled on December 2, 2025 at 9:00 PM ET.