Just 3.1 miles separate Fifth Third Arena from the Cintas Center, but on Friday night, that short drive will feel like two different worlds. The 93rd annual Crosstown Shootout tips off inside what promises to be a deafening, fully-charged Cintas Center—one of the sport’s most hostile environments and an arena that has swallowed Cincinnati whole for more than two decades.

Xavier: Surging at the Right Time

Xavier enters the Shootout riding a three-game winning streak, appearing to have finally found its footing after an undeniably rough start to Year 1 under Richard Pitino. Notably, not a single player on this year’s roster has ever played in a Crosstown Shootout, and the only player with any prior Shootout experience is transfer Roddie Anderson, who redshirted last year, but was on the bench for the shootout in Clifton. 

On the bench, Dante Jackson is the lone coach with firsthand Shootout experience. Pitino appears to be treating it like just another game after listening to his press conference. The comment didn’t land well with fans, and frankly, the Crosstown Shootout is the one matchup  on either of these teams schedules where a coach should openly acknowledge that yes, it means more. Regardless, Pitino and his team are about to learn its meaning quickly. Friday night will be, without question, the most electric environment Pitino has seen from the X fans since taking over the program.

Cincinnati: Searching for Answers After a Hot Start

Cincinnati enters the rivalry in a far different place than expected. After a promising 4–0 start, highlighted by a strong win over Dayton, the Bearcats have stumbled with two recent losses—including an ugly 64–56 setback to Eastern Michigan.

One advantage the Bearcats will have is experience in the Shootout, though not much. 

• Day Day Thomas, the emotional heartbeat of this roster, has been through the Shootout wars before.
• Tyler McKinley was on the roster for last year’s UC win, even though he didn’t play.
• And unlike Xavier, the Bearcats’ coaching staff remains mostly intact, giving UC continuity in a matchup where familiarity and poise matter.

Wes Miller shared this about the rivalry earlier this week acknowledging that this one has a heightened importance among the city in his pregame presser this week. The issue for UC fans then becomes how much they will be able to trust Miller and his staff, who are on life support and coaching for their jobs. 

A Rivalry Rich in History—and a Streak on the Line

Though Cincinnati leads the all-time series 52–40, the stat that looms largest this week is the one fans know by heart:
UC has not won inside the Cintas Center since 2001, a dominant 75–55 victory.

For most of the offseason, it looked like this might finally be the year that streak ends. Cincinnati was widely viewed as a potential double-digit favorite entering the season.

But now? This matchup feels like a true toss-up.

• KenPom projection: Xavier 72, Cincinnati 71
• FanDuel opening line (as of 3:30 PM ET, 12/4): Xavier -1.5

The stage is set. The margin is razor-thin. And as always, the city will stop for 40 minutes of chaos.

Musketeers vs. Bearcats: 

Tale of the Tape — Cincinnati

Cincinnati enters the Crosstown Shootout at 6–2, with all six wins coming at home. The Bearcats have handled Western Carolina, Georgia State, Dayton, Mount St. Mary’s, NJIT, and Tarleton State inside Fifth Third Arena. Their two losses? A neutral-site setback to Louisville at Heritage Bank Center, and an ugly home loss to Eastern Michigan.

Honestly, the Louisville result was encouraging—UC held one of the nation’s most explosive offenses to its worst performance of the season. But the momentum from that defensive masterpiece evaporated quickly, as Cincinnati followed it up just days later with a flat, low-energy performance against Eastern Michigan.

Cincinnati ranks 72nd nationally in KenPom, but how they get there is a study in extremes.

Defense: 4th Nationally in Defensive Efficiency

• Force turnovers at a 23.6% rate — 8th in the country
• Hold opponents to 31% from three
• Allow just 42% on twos — 9th in the nation
• Avoid fouling (FTA/FGA rate: 120th)

This is an athletic, ball-pressuring defense that thrives on disrupting rhythm and creating easy transition opportunities.

Offense: 219th Nationally in Offensive Efficiency

While the defense looks like a second-weekend NCAA Tournament unit, the offense has trended in the opposite direction:

• 219th nationally in offensive efficiency
• Play with real pace (25th-fastest tempo) but turn it over 20.2% of possessions — 293rd nationally. I am extremely concerned about the tempo that this team plays with and this team is best served to slow the pace down on the offensive side of the ball.
• From the field, UC isn’t elite inside or outside of the arc:
  • Shoot 31.8% from three (237th)
    • Despite the horrible efficiency, the Bearcats take threes at a high rate: 49.3% of all shot attempts (25th nationally)
  • Shoot 54.5% on twos (117th)

This is a team that wants to run, wants to shoot, and wants to create tempo—yet far too many possessions die via turnovers or rushed perimeter shots

Path to Victory on Friday Night

Cincinnati’s route to a win inside the Cintas Center is as clear as Xavier’s — just rooted in a different identity:

1. Turn Xavier Over and Create Easy Points

Xavier takes exceptional care of the ball. If UC can disrupt that trend — even marginally — they can manufacture the transition opportunities their offense desperately needs. Live-ball turnovers are Cincinnati’s best avenue for scoring.

2. Avoid Long Offensive Droughts

UC’s offense has at times gone cold for extended stretches. Against Xavier, those droughts will be magnified. The Bearcats don’t need perfection — but they do need efficiency from their guards and better perimeter shot-making than they’ve shown recently.

3. Win the Physicality Battle

Cincinnati’s defense is built on toughness. If they dictate physicality early, disrupt Xavier’s ball movement, and keep the Musketeers from establishing rhythm from deep, UC will put itself firmly in position to snap the two-decade drought in Cintas.

Tale of the Tape — Xavier

Xavier enters Friday night’s Crosstown Shootout at 6–3, with their best win coming over West Virginia in Charleston. The Musketeers’ three losses paint a fairly honest picture of their early-season growing pains: a 19-point home loss to Santa Clara, a 19-point road loss at Iowa, and a one-point heartbreaker against Georgia in Charleston.

The back-to-back blowout losses were the low point of the season—two games where Xavier looked out of sync on both ends of the floor. But since then, the Muskies have shown real growth. They’ve settled into a style that fits their roster, embraced a grittier identity, and begun to look like a team far more comfortable under Year 1 of Richard Pitino.

This is not Xavier’s most naturally talented group, and no one on the roster has ever played in a Crosstown Shootout. But what they have become is a team that plays connected, plays with effort, and has stopped beating itself. Their recent form suggests they’ve turned a corner, and they appear to have found something that genuinely works for them heading into the rivalry.

Offense: 103rd Nationally in Offensive Efficiency

The Xavier offense has been an absolute mixed bag to start this year. However, they have been steadily improving, much of that is due to their three point shooting. 

• 35th fastest tempo in the country on offense, and absolutely elite at sharing the ball with an assist per field goal made rate of 69.5, good for 5th in the nation. 
• Xavier shoots the 3 at a 38.4% clip, good for 34th in the country.
  • They take 44.8% of their shots from outside, 79th in the nation. 
• Xavier shoots the 2 at a 44.95 clip, a putrid 333rd in the nation.
  • This plays very well into Cincinnati’s defensive strengths, but only if they can force Xavier inside rather than them getting hot from outside. 

Defense: 70th Nationally in Defensive Efficiency

Xavier’s defense under Richard Pitino looks nothing like what Musketeer fans have grown accustomed to over the past decade—and that may be the best news for the program long term. The pack line is gone, replaced by a more aggressive, pressure-oriented approach that fits this roster’s athleticism and length.

• Defensive Efficiency: 70th nationally
• Rebounding: Excellent on the glass — allow just 25% offensive rebounds, 32nd nationally
• Three-Point Prevention: Elite at running teams off the arc — only 30% of opponent shots come from three (11th nationally)
• Assist Rate Allowed: Their biggest flaw — opponents assist on a staggering 338th-ranked rate of their made baskets
• Pace Allowed: Opponents play very fast against them — 304th nationally in defensive tempo

This is a defense that pressures, rebounds, and takes away the perimeter, but it can be carved up by disciplined ball movement and good passing

Path to Victory on Friday Night

Xavier’s blueprint for winning the 93rd Crosstown Shootout is clear:

1. Protect the Basketball

Xavier values possessions as well as any team in the country. Limiting turnovers is their best weapon against Cincinnati’s elite, chaos-focused defense. If the Muskies avoid live-ball giveaways, they strip UC of the easy transition points the Bearcats desperately rely on.

2. Win the Three-Point Battle

Xavier has already logged multiple games with 15+ made threes this year. To beat Cincinnati’s defense, they likely need 12+ made threes on Friday. If the Muskies find a rhythm early, they can force UC to extend and scramble—negating the Bearcats’ biggest advantage.

3. Push the Pace

While Cincinnati wants to play fast, Xavier lives fast. A fast tempo increases variance and increases opportunities for Xavier’s shooters. If the Musketeers turn this into a track meet and stay efficient, it tilts the matchup toward their strengths.

Key players: 

All stats are points/rebounds/assists, anything else will be labeled in the lines below. As both teams are so dependent on 3 point shots, I am listing  shooting %’s for guys who play. *’s denote expected starting 5.

Cincinnati’s rotation: 

• *Baba Miller: 14/10/2, 1 steal, 2 blocks and 3 turnovers. 13% from 3
• *Day Day Thomas: 14/4/4, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 turnovers. 50% from 3
• *Shon Abaev: 12/4/1, 1 steal, 2 turnovers, 25% from 3
• *Moustapha Thiam: 10/7/1, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 2 turnovers. 10% from 3
• Sencire Harris: 9/3/2, 2 steals, 1 turnover. 20% from 3
• *Kerr Kriisa: 8/2/5, 2 turnovers. 35% from 3
• Jordi Rodriguez: 4/1/1, 1 turnover. 29% from 3
• Jalen Celestine: 3/2/1, 1 turnover. 29% from 3
• Keyshaun Tillery: 3/1/1, 1 steal, 1 turnover. 33% from 3
• Halvine Dzellat: 2/3/0. 
• Tyler Mckinley: 2/3/1, 1 steal and 1 turnover. 

Xavier’s rotation: 

• *Tre Carroll: 16/5/3, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 turnovers. 40% from 3
• Roddie Anderson III: 14/3/3, 2 steals, 2 turnovers. 38% from 3 
• *Jovan Milicevic: 13/4/1, 1 block and 1 turnover. 44% from 3
• *All Wright: 11/2/2, 1 steal and 1 turnover. 50% from 3
• *Filip Borovicanin: 8/8/4, 2 steals 1 block and 1 turnover. 17% from 3
• *Malik Messina-Moore: 7/3/4, 1 steal, 1 turnover. 27% from 3
• Isaiah Walker: 4/2/0, 1 steal,. 43% from 3 
• Anthony Robinson: 4/4/0, 1 steal, 1 block and a turnover. 
• Pape N’Diaye: 1/2/0, 1 block per game. 33% from 3

Final Thoughts: 

The Crosstown Shootout is almost always decided by which team can keep their composure — which team can mentally survive what is, without exaggeration, one of the loudest and most volatile atmospheres in college basketball. Just ask John Fanta. This rivalry is unforgiving. It is emotional. It is chaotic. And in my opinion, it stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the very best in the sport. Duke–UNC, Kentucky–Louisville, Indiana–Purdue — all are iconic. But Crosstown? It’s every bit as intense, and in many ways, even more personal. The city feels it. The players feel it. The coaches feel it. 3 miles, 1 city. Who will run the 513 for the next year? 

Yes, both Cincinnati and Xavier are having down years by their respective standards. But that almost heightens the stakes. This year’s game isn’t just about bragging rights — it’s about direction.

For Cincinnati, a loss would place Wes Miller in the hottest seat he’s been in since arriving in Clifton. Failing to win a down-year Shootout, coupled with the recent Eastern Michigan loss, would make the path to the NCAA Tournament — and the path to job security — extremely narrow. But snapping a 24-year drought inside the Cintas Center? That would buy Miller time, hope, and belief. It would start to change the tone of the season overnight.

For Xavier, Year 1 under Richard Pitino is about establishing identity, building culture, and laying the foundation for a long-term reset. Expectations were modest, but progress has been real. A win in their first Crosstown together wouldn’t define the season, but it would ignite it — the type of victory that accelerates buy-in and signals that the Pitino era is ahead of schedule.

That’s what makes this edition of the Shootout so intriguing. Both programs need this one. Both fanbases know what it means. And for 40 minutes on Friday night, nothing else in the city of Cincinnati will matter.

My Prediction: 

Xavier 70-65. 

Xavier’s strengths are Cincinnati’s weaknesses, and vise versa. This game comes down to who can execute better, and I trust the home team to execute better than the away team. 

Photo Credit: Xavier athletics, Cincinnati Athletics, and Cincinnati Enquirer