By Michael Gross

Locks

None

“Near Lock”

Duke, Louisville, UNC

“Good Shape”

Virginia, SMU, Clemson

“Bubble”

NCST, Cal, Va Tech, Stanford, Miami, Wake

“Fringe Bubble”

Syracuse, Notre Dame

Duke with their 4 Q1A wins is well on their way to securing a bid to the NCAA Tournament. I expect them to do so by the end of January. UNC is not in quite as good a position as Duke, but is very likely a Tournament team. Louisville has been struggling with injuries lately, but has a great opportunity to improve their resume by beating Virginia at home.

Speaking of the Cavaliers, Virginia is in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament. The pause here is while their record is outstanding, their quality wins are a little hallow. The 2 road wins over NCST and Texas are nice though. If they can beat Louisville on the road that would move them up to “Near Lock”. Clemson has won 7 in a row. If they extend that to 9 this week, that will earn them an upgrade! SMU got that big win over UNC, they just need to continue winning!

Looking at the bubble teams, I think at the moment the Hokies are on the right side of the bubble. If they can win at SMU and beat ND at home this week, that would move them up to “Good Shape”. NCST has an interesting resume. They are 0-5 in Q1 games and 12-0 against everyone else. That Q1 record will need to change. They won’t be able to change that until next week. Stanford sure is making this interesting! They have 3 questionable to bad losses, but they also have wins over Louisville, St. Louis and Virginia Tech. They get Duke and UNC at home this week. A win in either one puts them in decent shape! Cal has a lot of work to do. They have a UCLA win and not much else. Miami got a nice road win at Wake Forest, but they need more. Their only other decent win came against Ole Miss. Wake Forest is closer to “fringe” than any of the bubble teams on here. They had a great opportunity on the road against UNC, but came up short!

Notre Dame has been on the wrong end of some tough games, and it’s probably going to cost them a bid. Syracuse has the W over Tennessee, but a 3-5 Q1-3 record just isn’t good enough.