By Michael Gross

🔐 none

“Near Lock”

Duke, UVA

“Good Shape”

Clemson, UNC, Louisville 

“Bubble”

NCST, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Miami, Wake

“Fringe Bubble”

Notre Dame, Syracuse

         Duke is very very close to 🔐 status with only 1 true landmine game left. If they win their next 2 that’ll be more than good enough! Virginia is rising up and has entered “near lock” status. Should they beat UNC at home and follow it up with wins at Notre Dame as well as at Boston College they would be a 🔐 entering February!

          Clemson who currently owns a 9 game winning streak is in terrific shape. A home win over NCST would boost them up to “Near Lock”. Since beat UNC at home the Mustangs of SMU have lost 3 close games against Clemson, Duke and Virginia while beating Virginia Tech at home on a buzzer beater. SMU has Wake Forest on the road and FSU at home. A loss in either game would likely drop them down to the main bubble section. If they win both games, they’ll have the opportunity to move up to “Near Lock” next week.

UNC still has a solid resume, but has struggled away from Chapel Hill. They need to beat Notre Dame at home and then beat either UVA or GT on the road to move back up to “Near Lock”. Louisville needs to get healthy and we don’t know when that is going to happen. Louisville gets Virginia Tech at home on Saturday in a game they really need!

           The Hokies finally broke their streak of 6 straight games being decided by 1 possession (yes I’m counting the 3 OT game as 1 possession) by comfortably beating ND at home. Next up 2 road games against Syracuse and Louisville. Winning either one would help their cause. Winning both would do wonders for their chances. If they lose both then I think their odds fall below 50%.

Cal lost to Duke and beat UNC at home last week. That keeps them very much in the hunt for a bid. Now comes 3 straight road games against Stanford, FSU and Miami. They can’t afford to go winless. It would really help if they can go 2-1. Stanford knocked off UNC at home before getting thumped by Duke. The 30 point home loss obviously hurt their predictive metrics, but their resume metrics have them very much in play! The 6-2 record in Q1/2 is a big feather in their cap. What is puzzling is the 8-3 record outside of Q1/2. Stanford needs to take care business at home against Cal before heading back on the road. 

Last week the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame while falling to Clemson away from Miami. That was a solid result, but it leaves them 1-3 in Q1 games. The good news is they are 14-0 outside of Q1. That needs to stay that way tonight against Florida St. 

NCST was also undefeated outside of Q1 until a disastrous home loss to GT. If they don’t win at Clemson tonight they better win at Pitt. If they go 0-2, they’ll have been virtually flawless the rest of the way to get a bid! Wake Forest is barely clinging to the “Bubble” section. They are much closer to “Fringe Bubble” than being in “good shape”. If they don’t beat SMU or Duke this week, I don’t see a path moving forward.

          Syracuse’s road loss in OT to Boston College has them barely clinging to the page. If they don’t beat both Virginia Tech and Miami at home this week, I don’t see it for them. The Irish get a shot against UNC in Chapel Hill. Can they take advantage of a UNC team that is slumping at the moment?